Fort Value: A qualitative look

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  • Fort Value: A qualitative look

    PvP and Nexus event bonuses don't apply to forts. The question of the value of forts especially with high event bonuses is perpetually raised in the forum. This thread is an attempt to give a comprehensive answer.

    This question is similar to the question "Where are my forts best used?" answered here:

    http://forums.capitalgames.com/showt...r-dual-forting

    JSA posted the first math analysis thread I'd seen showing the decreasing value of forts with increasing event bonus. You really notice the lack of fort value in the rare event (1500%). When you fight long battles, the 25% variance in non-crits makes it nearly impossible to feel any difference from forts in event boosted toons.

    http://forums.capitalgames.com/showt...s-the-question

    But there are many places where you can feel a difference even with high event bonuses:

    1) High aura boosts/Rune usage
    Event boosts don't count the forts, but regular auras and runes do. in a Dan rushdown squad you hope to kill the opponents using only normal speed attack before they have a chance to respond.

    FR: 2 Caladrius
    BR: 2 Danarius
    LC: DF

    For Dan power, you have 2 Caladrius 50% auras, a DF 35% aura and a 20% Faction Bonus. Even in an event with Dan receiving 400% bonus, a 4 T1 epic forted Dan will have 27,496 power vs. a 5 T4 forted Dan who has 34,630 power. That's about a 26% difference in power, which definitely affects play .

    (This calculation has nothing to do with BloodMage gain which is independant of forts).

    2) High crit environment
    Once the 10th fort slot is opened, the toon will have 25% crit chance. When in the back row, crits start happening very often. In addition to high aura boosts outlined in 1), the crit is another 2x factor which further amplifies forting

    3) High gain during battles
    Toons that give power when they move greatly amplify the effects of forting.
    a) Long tank battles
    Blighted squad battles are often a race to get The First's power high enough to start 1 shotting the opponents. 50% power gain in 2 rounds means 1.5*1.5=2.25x to start the 3rd round where your power approaches opponent's health. Leg forting often means the difference between a 3rd round kill or not, which can sway the whole battle.
    b) Ally power gain
    Toons that give power to their allies give the most amplification to forting. With a 400% bonus to power, a 3KeeperM/GEF/DF 4 T1 forted squad has KeeperM power 15,249 and a 5 T4 forted squad has KeeperM power 18,661. Assuming worst case where GEF goes first, the leg forted squad will hit for 20,472 extra power, allowing victory over a wider range of opponents. Obviously, without an event bonus this difference is even larger.

    KeeperM/QA squads with their 50% gain most amplify forts followed by Byron/KA squads with their 25% gain
    c) Mega power gainers
    Just like event bonuses of 5x make forting less important, battle gains of 5x and more really emphasize forting. It doesn't so much matter when going nuclear-killing all opponents with 1M or 2M doesn't matter. What does matter is when opponents have high health as often happens in events. 5x with forts can get you the kill where 5x without forts won't.

    Flemeth (8x to 13x to 16x gain per 3 ally death depending on when you read this post), Kolgrim (3x gain per opponent death), Eirik (2.5x gain per opponent death), Epic and Rare Reavers (2x gain per opponent death)

    d) Drainers
    Drain is similar to power gain in that it amplifies the effects of power. Having extra drain on a hit with Merrill can blunt your opponent's response. In really close battles, that extra drain and blunted response is the difference between staying alive with a sliver of health and being dead. Forts are make the most difference in drainer-drainer battles. In AD vs AD that extra drain on a 1st hit has the opponent's hit and drain that much weaker. This all really adds up in a long battle, even though it's harder to track.

    4) One-shot when attacking
    In 1), the epic forted Dans can on average 1 shot a team with 2*27,496=54,992 individual health. The maxforted Dans can on average 1 shot a team with 69,260 individual health.

    For a guaranteed win (assuming the worst case of 25% variance) the epic forted team can take a team with 54,992*.75=41,244 health. The maxforted team, 51,945.

    In a long battle, with power well less than health, fort values don't factor in as much as the 25% power variance and multiple hits make the outcome much harder to predict. But, the difference between killing an opponent with the initial hit and not is absolutely huge. The Dan rushdown team vs. an Uldred/VA/HO team must kill Uldred before he can respond or the Dan team will die.

    5) Events which balance Power and Health
    CG tends to do a good job balancing power and health bonuses during events.
    e.g. in the Tevinter Imperium, Tevinter toons got 1000% power/300% health. This made Dan power about equal to Dan health. When power and health are that close, small amounts of fortification make the difference between a one-shot and an opponent surviving. Especially with BloodMages, this is usually the difference between winning and losing.

    6) Defense squads
    Especially when playing in top 25 and above, you must fight the same opponents over and over. You generally need to be confident in a 90% win rate especially as banner/fight values decrease and banner loss/fight increases.

    This means that you have to consider the worst case when attacking-assume the opponent goes first and crits. If the opponent's power forts or your health forts allow you even 1 unit of health above their crit value, you can often guarantee a win. With crits, there is no attack power variance. You know exactly what attack you'll suffer. A single T2 vs T3 fort can make the difference between a 90% win rate and being able to farm that opponent. 1 extra opponent you can farm can make the difference between making top 10 or not.

    7) Counter squads
    These are a special case of 6) and deserve a mention even without an event bonus.

    Like with defense squads in 6), you have to consider the worst case in counter squads-crits. In countering 4WF/DF, getting Brogan Dace to 1 unit of health above 2 WF crits allows BD to guarantee 3 hits to death and a 90% win rate. 1 less unit of BD health and you only guarantee 2 hits to death and a much lower win rate.

    A tiny difference in health forts makes a huge difference to the outcome.

    For Reference:
    If you're looking to understand different levels of forting and power/health:


    Tested for T4 toons only: numbers are % of the T4 Gallery value for both Power and Health
    unforted: 30.77%
    4 T1 Epics: 54.1%
    4 T1 Legs: 73.4%
    5 T1 Legs: 84.1%
    5 T2 Legs: 88.3%
    5 T3 Legs: 93.9%
    5 T4 Legs: 100% (by definition except for Gallery rounding errors)
    Last edited by MAM_HoDA; 03-06-2015, 08:53 PM.
    "Dan and his BloodMage buddies loved the sport of hunting for the rare goaten eggs. With each new egg, they increased their efforts and enthusiasm. Then Dan found the goat who laid the eggs. Dan soon had all the eggs and went forth to resume the sport he loved. But, the village was empty as his buddies could no longer find eggs nor the sport they loved. Dan threw down his eggs and left, realizing that while he did indeed love the eggs, he loved the sport and his buddies more. When other goats returned, there was only Smaug who yawned and went back to sleep..." With a start, Dan awoke from his nightmare and vowed to run from GOATS!
    Enter your Nexus drops and see your odds: http://bit.ly/HoDA_Nexus

  • #2
    This post was prompted by the following:

    Originally posted by Amanda Svensson View Post
    MAM :
    How much does the fort helping when we have events whit 300%-800% bonuses ?

    Mam u are the math genius. Take as example Dan full fort and 0 fort in these events whit 400% healt and power boost. What is the diference.
    How much in % does the fort of dan help? and whit Va and other helpers beside him does he really need fort or not.

    I look at my 2 archies. 1 full epic fortet and the other only rare forted. In my eyes there is no diference (or very smal) when im playing.
    "Dan and his BloodMage buddies loved the sport of hunting for the rare goaten eggs. With each new egg, they increased their efforts and enthusiasm. Then Dan found the goat who laid the eggs. Dan soon had all the eggs and went forth to resume the sport he loved. But, the village was empty as his buddies could no longer find eggs nor the sport they loved. Dan threw down his eggs and left, realizing that while he did indeed love the eggs, he loved the sport and his buddies more. When other goats returned, there was only Smaug who yawned and went back to sleep..." With a start, Dan awoke from his nightmare and vowed to run from GOATS!
    Enter your Nexus drops and see your odds: http://bit.ly/HoDA_Nexus

    Comment


    • #3
      I want to find a way to subscribe to MAM_HoDA your threads always make me think BEYOND what i already do...

      while i test numbers and teams on a regular basis just some additional info to add to this

      current event case in point while I am not using dan's at all during this event I am bringing it up cause that's what most people are questioning gonna throw out some SD numbers as well cause its relevant

      With only being supported by HO FR dans with T1 leg forting have 95930 hp
      with only being supported by HO FR dans with t4 leg forting have 103310 hp
      without being supported by HO FR dans with T1 leg forting have 63953 hp
      without being supported by HO FR dans with T4 leg forting have 68873 hp

      back row SD with t4 leg forting supported by his buddy SD below him have 95175 hp ( 25% from self and other SD ) 50%

      this event gives us 400% power and health so depending on what you are fighting ( and talking about offense and defense ) forts have always made a difference ( so do hoods on bm's ) when running BM in your defense squad the higher the fort value t4>t2>t1>epic the more onslaught you can take during the first round based on rng and return fire with a vengeance

      because BM have so many toons that buff them this number can change quite often depending on your setup so if your fort values are lower then epic throwing in a VA for support can make all the difference.

      @mam the forting DEF makes a huge diffence when opening up the 10th slot when they crit not only do they receive the entire benefit of 2x damage thats takes all this into consideration and when attackign/defending with that depending on the toon the extra fort in that back row could mean the diffrence of the oppositions epic or t2 leg fort

      amazing thoughs and can't wait to hear what others say

      Comment


      • #4
        @winterme936: Thanks. And thanks for the extra numeric examples. I often wonder why people ever lose a battle. I think it's because they don't quite understand how it all works and kind of of wing battle choices. Stuff like this should help take some frustration about not knowing whether you'll win or not.
        "Dan and his BloodMage buddies loved the sport of hunting for the rare goaten eggs. With each new egg, they increased their efforts and enthusiasm. Then Dan found the goat who laid the eggs. Dan soon had all the eggs and went forth to resume the sport he loved. But, the village was empty as his buddies could no longer find eggs nor the sport they loved. Dan threw down his eggs and left, realizing that while he did indeed love the eggs, he loved the sport and his buddies more. When other goats returned, there was only Smaug who yawned and went back to sleep..." With a start, Dan awoke from his nightmare and vowed to run from GOATS!
        Enter your Nexus drops and see your odds: http://bit.ly/HoDA_Nexus

        Comment


        • #5
          Finding JSA's original thread on forting and event bonuses would be nice to add to this thread.
          "Dan and his BloodMage buddies loved the sport of hunting for the rare goaten eggs. With each new egg, they increased their efforts and enthusiasm. Then Dan found the goat who laid the eggs. Dan soon had all the eggs and went forth to resume the sport he loved. But, the village was empty as his buddies could no longer find eggs nor the sport they loved. Dan threw down his eggs and left, realizing that while he did indeed love the eggs, he loved the sport and his buddies more. When other goats returned, there was only Smaug who yawned and went back to sleep..." With a start, Dan awoke from his nightmare and vowed to run from GOATS!
          Enter your Nexus drops and see your odds: http://bit.ly/HoDA_Nexus

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by MAM_HoDA View Post
            @winterme936: Thanks. And thanks for the extra numeric examples. I often wonder why people ever lose a battle. I think it's because they don't quite understand how it all works and kind of of wing battle choices. Stuff like this should help take some frustration about not knowing whether you'll win or not.
            well.... i lose cause of RNG lol but yeah on NON bm events its easier to predict a win/lose give or take RNG

            With the influx of dans I have a diffrent strategy all together atm that seems to be working very well lol


            as far as the event bonus % from the last few weeks 500% p/h seems to be the breaking point where the forts make less of a difference but 200 300 400 makes alll the diffrence but ill update this in about 12 hours on new event got some badass demons and some amazing spirits ( wf will break this though ) that I can have some solid data on ( i.e. SD GOTU GO Baroness will be some in test squads.. o and dred )

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by MAM_HoDA View Post
              Finding JSA's original thread on forting and event bonuses would be nice to add to this thread.
              well i DID have it stickied ill find it

              http://forums.capitalgames.com/showt...s-the-question

              that one?
              Last edited by winterme936; 02-05-2015, 02:35 AM.

              Comment


              • #8
                Very informative thread.
                +1 subbed.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by winterme936 View Post
                  well i DID have it stickied ill find it

                  http://forums.capitalgames.com/showt...s-the-question

                  that one?
                  Thanks for the link. It was written 3 months ago...what feels like almost an entire era ago. The two articles are complementary.

                  I added your link, a link to the best use of forts, and a discussion of runes and drainers to the original post.
                  Last edited by MAM_HoDA; 02-05-2015, 04:06 AM.
                  "Dan and his BloodMage buddies loved the sport of hunting for the rare goaten eggs. With each new egg, they increased their efforts and enthusiasm. Then Dan found the goat who laid the eggs. Dan soon had all the eggs and went forth to resume the sport he loved. But, the village was empty as his buddies could no longer find eggs nor the sport they loved. Dan threw down his eggs and left, realizing that while he did indeed love the eggs, he loved the sport and his buddies more. When other goats returned, there was only Smaug who yawned and went back to sleep..." With a start, Dan awoke from his nightmare and vowed to run from GOATS!
                  Enter your Nexus drops and see your odds: http://bit.ly/HoDA_Nexus

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    +10 for u mam

                    Johhny sumes it upp good in his thread:

                    What does this mean for fortification:
                    • If you generally target in the 101 - 1000 bracket and the event bonus is at least 200%, you are probably okay with epic forting your toons and probably even just rare forting - anything higher of an event bonus just makes this more so true
                    • The breakeven for forting with legs or not forting with legs for me is 300% - if you are shooting for top prizes and the bonus is 300% or less, you probably need the leg forts in there as at 400% this is where you start to get 85% of the performance with just using epics - that gets you within RNG range and keep in mind that 85% is vs. heavily fortified leg units - vs. T1 leg units or epic / leg mixed units it would be even closer
                    • Anything with a stacked bonus, you get little additional benefit out of leg forting vs. epic forting and if the event bonus is big enough you should just go with no forts
                    Last edited by Imperator Viktorius; 02-05-2015, 09:43 PM.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Added quantitative fort values to original post:

                      For Reference:
                      If you're looking to understand different levels of forting and power/health:

                      Tested for T4 toons only: numbers are % of the T4 Gallery value for both Power and Health
                      unforted: 30.77%
                      4 T1 Epics: 54.1%
                      4 T1 Legs: 73.4%
                      5 T1 Legs: 84.1%
                      5 T2 Legs: 88.3%
                      5 T3 Legs: 93.9%
                      5 T4 Legs: 100% (by definition except for Gallery rounding errors)
                      "Dan and his BloodMage buddies loved the sport of hunting for the rare goaten eggs. With each new egg, they increased their efforts and enthusiasm. Then Dan found the goat who laid the eggs. Dan soon had all the eggs and went forth to resume the sport he loved. But, the village was empty as his buddies could no longer find eggs nor the sport they loved. Dan threw down his eggs and left, realizing that while he did indeed love the eggs, he loved the sport and his buddies more. When other goats returned, there was only Smaug who yawned and went back to sleep..." With a start, Dan awoke from his nightmare and vowed to run from GOATS!
                      Enter your Nexus drops and see your odds: http://bit.ly/HoDA_Nexus

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Thank you very much for this. For some reason I never saw this thread before. The biggest problem I have is deciding whether to fort T1 legs right now or take the weeks of tiering to fort with T3-T4.
                        Then we come to someone like Felix. He is the most complex toon I have. Quick toons are easy cause I know it is all about power. Slow tanks, it is all about HP. Felix needs to survive blows to give power. He also needs to give the most power he can. i have forted his power with T4 Epics and am beginning to Fort HP with T3 Legs. Should I be as concerned with his power as much as health? Should his power be a priority over HP?
                        173-223-415. OL General

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Sadly, I'm not yet an expert with GCP exclusive toons, and am engaged with a very fun Peasant Revolt PvP, so don't have the time resources to research your question. Perhaps someone else could take a crack at Felix and forting priorities.

                          In the meantime, while this thread doesn't yet have Felix added, it has a framework for evaluating your question and many examples.

                          http://forums.capitalgames.com/showt...-Effectiveness
                          "Dan and his BloodMage buddies loved the sport of hunting for the rare goaten eggs. With each new egg, they increased their efforts and enthusiasm. Then Dan found the goat who laid the eggs. Dan soon had all the eggs and went forth to resume the sport he loved. But, the village was empty as his buddies could no longer find eggs nor the sport they loved. Dan threw down his eggs and left, realizing that while he did indeed love the eggs, he loved the sport and his buddies more. When other goats returned, there was only Smaug who yawned and went back to sleep..." With a start, Dan awoke from his nightmare and vowed to run from GOATS!
                          Enter your Nexus drops and see your odds: http://bit.ly/HoDA_Nexus

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I understand your distraction with the Peasants. Not expecting an answer about Felix specifically. Is it really that much better to tier up legs before using them as fort food? Most of the time we are only talking about a few hundred points. I could fully fort Felix with Legs right now with T1. If it is that much more substantial to do it with T3-T4 then it will be a long, long time before he gets the Forts he needs.
                            173-223-415. OL General

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Sajon View Post
                              I understand your distraction with the Peasants. Not expecting an answer about Felix specifically. Is it really that much better to tier up legs before using them as fort food? Most of the time we are only talking about a few hundred points. I could fully fort Felix with Legs right now with T1. If it is that much more substantial to do it with T3-T4 then it will be a long, long time before he gets the Forts he needs.
                              This thread was posted as a guide to making the exact decision you are talking about. I cannot give a general answer as it so depends on your goals (particular PvP placements/Nexus), your current squad, your potential future squad, current available leg forts and ability to get future leg forts, play time, gem budget, play style, ability and desire to consider all this stuff vs. just throwing in a T1 fort and hoping for the best.

                              One example is with BD. When in a WF counter squad, 1 HP will make the difference between surviving a maxed WF crit or not. That will determine whether you win or lose...this is the sort of stuff to consider along with everything else when forting.
                              "Dan and his BloodMage buddies loved the sport of hunting for the rare goaten eggs. With each new egg, they increased their efforts and enthusiasm. Then Dan found the goat who laid the eggs. Dan soon had all the eggs and went forth to resume the sport he loved. But, the village was empty as his buddies could no longer find eggs nor the sport they loved. Dan threw down his eggs and left, realizing that while he did indeed love the eggs, he loved the sport and his buddies more. When other goats returned, there was only Smaug who yawned and went back to sleep..." With a start, Dan awoke from his nightmare and vowed to run from GOATS!
                              Enter your Nexus drops and see your odds: http://bit.ly/HoDA_Nexus

                              Comment

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